Application of Rough Set Theory and Bow-Tie Analysis to Maritime Safety Analysis Management: A Case Study of Taiwan Ship Collision Incidents

Abstract

Featured Application: The integrated method used in this study can be extended to risk analysis and management of various hazards, including those associated with lack of statistical information, regional specificity, and multiple risk factors. The surrounding waters of Taiwan are evaluated as a moderate risk environment by Casualty Return, Lloyd’s Registry of Shipping. Among all types of maritime accidents, ship collisions occur most often, which has severe consequences, including ship damage, sinking and death of crews, and destruction of marine environments. It is, therefore, imperative to mitigate the risk of ship collision by exploring the risk factors and then providing preventive measures. This study invited domain experts to form a decision-making group, which helped with the risk assessment. The initial set of risk factors was selected from the literature. The expert group then identified seven representative risk factors using rough set theory (RST). The researchers worked with the experts to delineate the diagram of a bow-tie analysis (BTA), which provided the causes, consequences, and preventive and mitigation measures for ship collision incidents. The results show an integrated research framework for the risk assessment of ship collision that can effectively identify key factors and associated managerial strategies to improve navigation safety, leading to a sound marine environment.