Managing climate risk in a major coffee-growing region of Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia is currently one of the top four coffee exporting countries in the world. Climate change is projected to cause significant impacts on coffee. Without proper adaptation measures, this will significantly lower the productions. Changes in rainfall and increases in temperature will affect the phenological development that would eventually influence yield and quality of crop including the potential risks of pest and disease attacks. Assessment in Toba, a major coffee-growing region of Indonesia, indicated that in the middle of this century (the 2050s), under climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, suitable areas for coffee production would decrease significantly. The average yield is projected to decrease between 25% and 75% of the current yield. However, the highlands that are currently not suitable for coffee (>1500 m above mean sea level) is projected to become suitable with a higher yield than the current. A significant increase in rainfall during the rainy season and prolonged dry season will also affect coffee phenological development. It will shift the peak of coffee flowering and harvesting seasons in Toba. The severity of the coffee berry borer Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) attack will also increase in the future. The current crop management farming practices should be adjusted and improved to adapt to such change.