Prediction of Residential Building Energy Consumption in Jilin Province, China

Abstract

This research investigates and analyzes the current condition of urban and rural residential energy consumption of Jilin Province, China, by establishing a model of residential energy demand. The model can predict such energy demand based on the demand types and environmental load of Jilin Province until 2020. Compared with 2000, rural residential energy demand will reduce approximately 25% in 2020, because of the decrease of rural population per household, while the urban residential energy demand will grow about 2.5 times in 2020, because of the increased urban population and rising standard of living. At the same time, compared with 2000, CO2 emissions resulting from rural residential energy consumption will grow approximately 10% in 2020. The basic reason for this is the increase of electricity consumption by rural residents. CO2 emissions from urban residential energy consumption will grow about three times in 2020. © 2006, Architectural Institute of Japan. All rights reserved.