Associations between declining antibiotic use in primary care in Scotland and hospitalization with infection and patient satisfaction: longitudinal population study

Abstract

Background: Reducing antibiotic use is central to antimicrobial stewardship, but may have unintended consequences. Objectives: To examine associations between size of decline in antibiotic prescriptions in general practices and (i) rate of hospitalization for infection and (ii) patient satisfaction. Methods: Routine data analysis for all general practices in Scotland, quarter one 2012 (Q1 2012) to quarter one 2018 (Q1 2018). Practices were grouped into quartiles of rate of change in prescribing and changes in rates of hospitalization were compared across groups. For satisfaction analysis, associations between practice-level patient satisfaction in 2017-18 (Scottish Health and Care Experience Survey) and prior change in antibiotic prescription were examined. Results: Antibiotic prescriptions overall fell from 194.1 prescriptions/1000 patients in Q1 2012 to 165.3 in Q1 2018 (14.9% reduction). The first quartile of practices had a non-significant increase in prescriptions [change per quarter = 0.22 (95% CI -0.42 to 0.86) prescriptions/1000 patients], compared with large reductions in the other three groups, largest in quartile four: -2.95 (95% CI -3.66 to -2.24) prescriptions/1000 patients/quarter (29.7% reduction overall). In all quartiles, hospitalizations with infection increased. The increase was smallest in quartile four (the biggest reduction in prescriptions) and highest in quartile one (no significant change in prescriptions): 2.18 (95% CI 1.18 to 3.19) versus 3.68 (95% CI 2.64 to 4.73) admissions/100 000 patients/quarter, respectively [difference = - 1.50 (95% CI -2.91 to -0.10)]. There was no statistically significant association between change in antibiotic prescriptions and patient satisfaction. Conclusions: Very large reductions in antibiotic prescriptions in Scottish general practices have not been associated with increases in hospitalization with infection or changes in patient satisfaction.