Prediction model of high risk esophageal and gastric varices in patients with compensated hepatitis B cirrhosis: A case-control study

Abstract

BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal endoscopy is the gold standard for judging esophageal and gastric varices in patients with liver cirrhosis. There is no effective noninvasive prediction model for high-risk esophageal and gastric fundus varices. AIM To construct and validate a prediction model of high-risk esophageal varices in patients with compensated cirrhosis. METHODS The clinical data of 276 patients with compensated hepatitis B cirrhosis treated from January 2018 to December 2020 at Tianjin Beichen Hospital and Armed Police Special Medical Center were analyzed retrospectively. A total of 81 patients with high-risk varices and 195 patients with non-high-risk varices were included. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors for high-risk esophageal and gastric varices in patients with compensated hepatitis B cirrhosis, and a predictive model was constructed using these factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to verify the prediction efficiency of the constructed model. RESULTS Logistic regression showed that albumin (ALB) level (odds ratio [OR] = 0.825, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.779-0.873, P = 0.000), platelet (PLT) count (OR = 0.934, 95%CI: 0.895-0.975, P = 0.001), and portal vein width (OR = 1.481, 95%CI: 1.141-1.922, P = 0.002) were risk factors for high risk varicose veins in patients with compensated hepatitis B cirrhosis. The equation of the prediction model constructed based on these factors was: Y = -0.192 × ALB (g/L) -0.068 × PLT count (109/L) + 0.393 × portal vein width (mm) + 6.87. The area under the ROC curve of the model for predicting high-risk esophagogastric varices was 0.976. The best diagnostic cut-off point was 0.767, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.968 and 0.882, respectively. CONCLUSION The prediction model of high-risk esophagogastric varices based on PLT, ALB, and portal vein width has high diagnostic efficiency.