Adapting Climate Change Projections to Pacific Maritime Supply Chains

Abstract

From producers to consumers, via seaports, shipping, intermodal transport, customs authorities and retail/wholesalers, Pacific maritime supply chains are vulnerable to climate change disruption risks. Projected changes in temperature, sea level rise, precipitation, storms, cyclones and droughts all threaten future Pacific maritime ecosystems, economies, future populations, commodity resource bases, level of coastal protection, economic activities and future seaborne trade. Although numerous other climate change impact studies consider impact costs for communities, ecosystems and populations, this paper considers specific implications of climate change projections for Pacific maritime supply chains. This paper noting the challenges faced by many maritime, supply chain, stakeholders, in ascertaining climate change risks, impact costs and appropriate adaptation solutions. These challenges include uncertainty in risk, impact costs and consequences, in magnitude, duration, frequency, timing, in regional and local patterns and in climate variability versus more prolonged climate change. Investigating research literature for stakeholder requirements and constraints to existing projections, it therefore proposes an online tool and independent set of screening criteria with which Pacific maritime supply chain stakeholders can independently evaluate climate change projections. Improved climate change projection, information sources and forecasting methods also can more accurately determine the physical vulnerability and risk exposure of maritime supply chains and stakeholders.