A value-driven approach to capture unintended consequences impacting mission success

Abstract

Large-scale complex engineered systems are systems whose complexity and numerous inherent couplings can lead to unintended consequences or unanticipated behaviors during system operation. In many cases, these behaviors have negligible impact on system functionality; however, some unanticipated behaviors can contribute to a deficiency or even a failure of the system. Capturing these behaviors during the design and development phase (before testing and operation) can aid system managers in a reduction of time, costs, or even cancellation of projects due to a disastrous unforeseen interaction. Early identification also aids engineers to redesign components at an early phase of the development process, instead of relying on mitigation to address the issue after the fact. The goal of this paper is to use a coupling strength analysis from the field of multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) to identify possible unanticipated behaviors or consequences due to interactions that were previously assumed of little importance. An evaluation of possible losses in value due to unforeseen behaviors will also be made using a value-based systems engineering (VBSE) approach.