A model is presented for estimating the impact on climate change by the European passenger car fleet. Based on real-world CO2 emissions, none of the scenarios allows compliance with the assumed 10% reduction by 2020, relative to 2005. Given a robust policy to limit real-world emissions by 2030, zero-emission sales shares as low as 8% allows a CO2 reduction by 30% by 2030, relative to 2005. This nonetheless requires a quick phase-out of conventional powertrains by 2035 to keep track with the desired decarbonisation by 2050. Therefore, increasing the effort on both a European as a national/regional level to incentivise both the industry and consumers to shift towards zero-emission technology is one of the key challenges on the short-term.
CITATION STYLE
Hooftman, N., Messagie, M., Van Mierlo, J., & Coosemans, T. (2020). The Paris Agreement and Zero-Emission Vehicles in Europe: Scenarios for the Road Towards a Decarbonised Passenger Car Fleet. In Lecture Notes in Mobility (pp. 151–168). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38028-1_11
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