Estimating Extent of Mortality Associated with the Douglas-fir Beetle in the Central and Northern Rockies

Abstract

Data collected from Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) stands infested by the Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae) in Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Utah, were used to develop models to estimate amount of mortality in terms of basal area killed. Models were built using stepwise linear regression and regression tree approaches. Linear regression models using initial Douglas-fir basal area were built for all study sites but produce low precision estimates. Regression tree models using initial Douglas-fir basal area or stand density index or both were also built for all sites. Regression tree models provide a more realistic approach to estimate potential mortality by creating more homogenous mortality classes with reduced variance. The models developed provide land managers with a basis for determining the potential mortality should a Douglas-fir beetle outbreak develop.