A review of nowcasting of convective weather over the Indian region

Abstract

In recent years, with the improvement of observation and computation networks, prediction techniques as well as communication channels, there is an increasing public demand for location specific accurate forecast of weather. This need is especially felt for short duration mesoscale weather systems, for which there is less time for taking safety measures. The present article is a brief review of the recent developments in the field of operational thunderstorm prediction over India in the short to very short time scale. The article first briefly discusses the climatology of thunderstorms over the Indian region, its seasonal, spatial and diurnal variability. It then discusses the new observation resources that are now becoming available for operational thunderstorm forecasting including the current generation of satellites, Doppler radars, lightning detection network, as well as the surface and upper air network of observatories. This is followed by a discussion of numerical techniques available worldwide for very short range to nowcast scale forecasting of convective weather. The models that have been operationally implemented in India are discussed in greater detail along with brief mention of the results from the verification of these softwares. The next section details the current procedure of operational nowcasting in India Meteorological Department (IMD) including the recent efforts undertaken to improve the nowcast mechanism. The verification results bear out the fact that these measures have been successfully implemented and there has been significant improvement in operational forecasting of thunderstorms over the Indian region. The final section details the initiatives taken by various government and private agencies to improve the forecasting of thunderstorms and associated weather and impact assessment of thunderstorms. The present challenges before the community of thunderstorm forecasters is also detailed in this section.