Technological forecasting as a prerequisite for successful country specialisation

Abstract

The article presents the results of the study showing how poor technological forecasting affects the determination of national economic development strategies. To accurately capture and neutralise negative effects of technological forecasting (TF), the author analyses it and reveals its complex multi-component and «foresighting» nature. The object of TF - the technological environment - is studied as a self-organising system which provides an optimal strategy for its controlled development. Such development should be based on «smart» diversification of scientific and technological potential, as well as on complex prognostic activity. Taking into account the need to support this strategy and the specifics of TF, the author identifies potential adverse effects of TF and proposes methodological recommendations for their neutralisation.