Quantitative Assessment of Risk Caused by Domino Accidents in Chemical Process Industries

Abstract

The use of a quantitative assessment to study the domino accidents can help in deriving a more perceptible and more steadfast result than in that of a qualitative assessment. The data required for the study is derived from various risk assessment studies previously taken up in chemical process industries. The methodology followed in this paper would help in the determination of the maximum-credible accident scenarios (MCAS) from a list of several credible accident scenarios obtained for a definite scope or different escalation scenarios to a secondary accident scenario from a primary accident. The most credible accident scenario is determined based on some potential factors-financial loss, fatalities, ecosystem damage that consider site-specific information for population density, asset density of the site, population distribution, damage area, importance factor, etc. The damage radii and other possible consequences are determined by modeling with the help of a comprehensive process hazard analysis software tool. Considering a maximum-credible accident scenario as a primary event, the various escalations to its possible secondary and tertiary scenarios are evaluated for their frequencies and severity of their consequences.