An analysis of the effects of territory properties on population behaviors and evacuation management during disasters using coupled dynamical systems

Abstract

One of the major current challenges in the field of security and safety of populations is to advance further in the understanding and the ability to anticipate their behaviors when faced with threats or disasters. Several factors such as the hazard properties or the culture of risk can influence people behavior during a disaster. In this paper, we assume that the spatial configuration of the site where the disaster takes place has also a significant impact on collective behaviors. For this, we use a mathematical model based on meta-population networks, in order to design realistic evacuation scenarios. This model, called the Alert-Panic-Control model, allows, on the one hand, to take into account the temporal dynamics of collective behaviors in front of disaster and on the other hand, the spatial context considered in terms of site maximum capacity. From the results of a in situ experiment carried out in 2019 with the population of Le Havre (France) concerning an industrial accident hypothesis, and in particular from the different evacuation paths chosen by the respondents, three scenarios of evacuation of the place located below the street level and in front of the Niemeyer Cultural Centre were built. The results are able to quantify how the contagion of panic has a major impact or not on an evacuation forced by specific territorial properties. Too narrow paths can cause panic phenomena due to bottleneck. They also highlight that the function of the refuge places, recreational function in this case, must be taken into account insofar as they can gather many people, impeding the evacuation of the population exposed to the danger.