Application of Hydrological Forecast Verification Information

Abstract

Verification studies and systems often focus solely on the exercise of verifying forecasts and not on the application of verification information. This chapter discusses the potential for application of hydrological forecast verification information to improve decision-making in and around the forecast process. Decision-makers include model developers and system designers, forecasters, forecast consumers, and forecast administrators. Each of these has an important role in decisions about forecasts and/or the application of forecasts that may be improved through use of forecast verification. For each, we describe the role, the actions that could be taken to improve forecasts or their application, the context and constraints of those actions, and needs for verification information. Consistent with other studies and assessments on forecast verification, we identify the need for a routine forecast verification system to archive data, plan for operations, measure forecast performance, and group forecasts according to application. Further, we call on forecast agencies and forecast consumers to use forecast verification as a routine part of their operations in order to continually improve services and to engage others to use forecast verification to improve decision-making.