Bayesian inference for credible intervals of optimal software release time

Abstract

This paper deals with the estimation of a credible interval of the optimal software release time in the context of Bayesian inference. In the past literature, the optimal software release time was often discussed under the situation where model parameters are exactly known. However, in practice, we should evaluate effects of the optimal software release time on uncertainty of the model parameters. In this paper, we apply Bayesian inference to evaluating the uncertainty of the optimal software release time. More specifically, a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is proposed to compute a credible interval of the optimal software release time. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.