Rapid Response Numerical Modeling of the 2010 Pakistan Flooding

Abstract

Late summer 2010 saw record flooding of the Indus River in Pakistan. In response to requests by the U.S. Army, the writers provided flood extents to aid humanitarian assistance in the affected areas. Numerical modeling provided the best way to compute the flooding in this situation, but with limited bathymetric, topographic, and inflow information, assumptions had to be made; timelines were of significantly higher importance than complete accuracy. The writers developed an adaptive hydraulics (AdH) model of the Indus River from Sukkur to the Arabian Sea covering approximately 180,000 km2 of Pakistan. Based on aerial images taken during the flood, the writers later compared the model results to the flood extents to determine the level of accuracy of the model. The AdH model results approximately reproduced the area of flooding for initial emergency operations, even with little knowledge of the area and the inflow conditions. The results of this exercise show that rapid modeling of large-scale flooding is possible in emergency situations. This paper describes lessons learned and provides recommendations for similar future efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]