Risk and reliability analysis

Abstract

Natural and anthropogenic hazards pose significant risks to individuals and communities. Over the past few decades, risk and reliability analysis have gone from a specialty topic to a mainstream subject in engineering, becoming essential tools for informed decision making, hazard mitigation, and planning. This book presents the state-of-the-art in risk and reliability analysis with a unique collection of contributions from some of the foremost scholars in the field. Combining the most advanced analysis techniques with practical applications, this book is one of the most comprehensive and up-to-date references available on this subject, makes the state-of-the-art in risk and reliability analysis accessible to a large audience, and helps make risk and reliability analysis the rigorous foundation of engineering decision-making. The fundamental concepts needed to conduct risk and reliability analysis are covered in detail, providing readers with a sound understanding of the field and making the book a powerful tool for students, researchers and practitioners (engineering professionals and risk analysts) alike. The book is a tribute to Pro- fessor Armen Der Kiureghian, one of the fathers of modern risk and reliability analysis. During his career, Professor Der Kiureghian has made fundamental and revolutionary research contributions to this field. He has pioneered methods for safety and reliability assessment of complex structures and for stochastic seismic analysis of buildings, bridges and critical equipment. Many of his publications have become mandatory readings for the current and future generations of students, researchers and practitioners. The book is organized into six parts. Part I gives a general introduction of the book including a discussion of its goal and contributions, presents an overview of the field of risk and reliability analysis, and discusses the role of Armen Der Kiureghian in modern risk and reliability analysis. Part II focuses specifically on reliability analysis, and includes a description of efficient computational methods and their applications to some of the most complex real-life problems. Part III covers the subject of stochastic dynamics, presenting both methods and applications. Part IV discusses methods for sensitivity analysis and optimization in the context of risk and reliability analysis. Part V focuses on statistical analysis and the development of probabilistic models. Finally, Part VI covers life-cycle and resilience analysis as well as different financial tools for risk mitigation. While each part has a specific focus, many of the chapters build on and use the methods and techniques covered in some of the other parts of the book. Such links help understand the relation between the different subjects, which is needed for a thorough understanding of the topic of risk and reliability analysis.