Foresight model of export-oriented import substitution in Russia

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to justify the prospects of export-oriented import substitution based on an assessment of the current and predicted effectiveness of the import substitution policy implemented in Russia. Design/methodology/approach: Calculations carried out for the period from 2013 to 2018 showed the inefficiency of the costs envisaged by state programs for the import substitution policy implementation right up to 2017 and the growth of efficiency value to only 23.7% in 2018 as a result of the obvious influence of government support measures with taking into account the time lag of 4–5 years. Findings: The construction of a forecast model of export-oriented import substitution starting in 2019 showed the unattainability of target export indicators declared in state programs and the inefficiency of funding allocated for these purposes within the duration of state programs and beyond, taking into consideration the established time lag. Originality/value: A revision of the current model of the state policy of import substitution is proposed, based on the prevention of increased state protectionism that contributes to the preservation of the country’s technological backwardness and the low competitiveness of its producers, a radical audit of government exporting programs, and a review of their target indicators founded on reliable and accurate forecasts of their potential dynamics.