Comparison of the performance of SWAT and hybrid M5P tree models in rainfall–runoff simulation

Abstract

Stream flow forecasting is a crucial aspect of hydrology and water resource management. This study explores stream flow forecasting using two distinct models: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and a hybrid M5P model tree. The research specifically targets the daily stream flow predictions at the MH Halli gauge stations, located along the Hemvati River in Karnataka, India. A 14-year dataset spanning from 2003 to 2017 is divided into two subsets for model calibration and validation. The SWAT model’s performance is evaluated by comparing its predictions to observed stream flow data. Residual time series values resulting from this comparison are then resolved using the M5P model tree. The findings reveal that the hybrid M5P tree model surpasses the SWAT model in terms of various evaluation metrics, including root-mean-square error, coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, and degree of agreement (d) for the MH Halli stations. In conclusion, this study shows the effectiveness of the hybrid M5P tree model in stream flow forecasting. The research contributes valuable insights into improved water resource management and underscores the importance of selecting appropriate models based on their performance and suitability for specific hydrological forecasting tasks.