Statistical model checking using perfect simulation

Abstract

We propose to perform statistical probabilistic model checking by using perfect simulation in order to verify steady-state and time unbounded until formulas over Markov chains. The model checking of probabilistic models by statistical methods has received increased attention in the last years since it provides an interesting alternative to numerical model checking which is poorly scalable with the increasing model size. In previous statistical model checking works, unbounded until formulas could not be efficiently verified, and steady-state formulas had not been considered due to the burn-in time problem to detect the steady-state. Perfect simulation is an extension of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods that allows us to obtain exact steady-state samples of the underlying Markov chain, and thus it avoids the burn-in time problem to detect the steady-state. Therefore we suggest to verify time unbounded until and steady-state dependability properties for large Markov chains through statistical model checking by combining perfect simulation and statistical hypothesis testing. © 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.