Probabilistic strain energy life assessment model

Abstract

Under the "safe-life" methodology used by the United States Navy the service life of aircraft fleet are determined by monitoring the aircraft's usage and estimating the respective fatigue damage. The calculated fatigue life expenditure representing cumulative damage is then used to determine if it is possible for an aircraft or a fleet of aircrafts to reach the point of crack initiation and whether or not it should be retired. This research focuses on the development and initial application of a probabilistic strain-energy model to augment the empirical-based fatigue life expended approach. Experimental fatigue data obtained in this research is used to determine the relation between the number of cycles-to-failure and the cumulative total strain energy. A Bayesian framework for regression, including consideration of the model error is used to develop a probabilistic model of life that includes parameter uncertainties due to the limitation and scatter observed in the experimental data. © 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.