Modeling heat stress changes based on wet-bulb globe temperature in respect to global warming

Abstract

Background: This ecological study aims to model the trend of changes in exposure of outdoor workers to heat stress in outdoors in the coming decades with the use of the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), Hadley Coupled Atmosphere- Ocean General Circulation Model, version 3 (HADCM3), and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) in Tehran, Iran, considering the climate change and the global warming. Methods: The hourly values of environmental parameters including minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and radiation related to Prakash , Shahriar and Damavand cities were obtained from the Meteorological Organization of Iran. These data were recorded during 1965 to 2015. The climate modeling was done for 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099. Results: The minimum and maximum air temperatures in the different months of the year in the three studied cities show an increasing trend. Our finding shows that the WBGT will be increased by 2099. In Pakdasht, this index will be close to the danger zone in the coming years, especially in 2080–2099. Conclusions: All the results obtained indicate an increase in risk of heat stress in outdoor workplaces, given the global warming.