Dynamic reliability assessment of a complex recovery system using fault tree, fuzzy inference and discrete event simulation

Abstract

Any failure on the recovery system will cause a lot of environmental damage as well as energy loss. Hereof two types of alternatives; fast opening valve system (FOVS) and seal drum system (SDS) may be installed. The focus of this article is on the decision stage to choose the most preferred option in terms of reliability assessment. The major challenge in the research problem is on changing the pressure and temperature during operational cycles, which significantly affect the reliability. In addition, the lack of historical data complicates the reliability assessment method. Hence, we proposed a hybrid approach using fault tree analysis (FTA) and the Mamdani fuzzy inference to estimate reliability response as a func-tion of a few frequently operating pressure and temperature. Also, discrete-event simulation helped us to evaluate the system reliability at different operating conditions. The compari-sons reveals that the FOVs outperforms on average of 22.4% than the SDS and it is recom-mended for putting into practice for purchasing.