Probabilistic Evaluation of the Stability in Earned Value Management Forecasting on Topologically Diverse Project Networks

Abstract

“When will the project performance indices in my project become stable?” is an ever interesting fundamental question in earned value management (EVM) but mostly unresolved as well, especially for the highly dynamic construction projects which call for frequent updating and rescheduling. The stability of the performance indices assures the credibility of EVM as an effective tool to analyse the project performances as well as to forecast the requirements. This paper presents an assessment of time and cost performance stability in EVM based on an analytical stability simulation model which evaluates the probability of the stable project performance indices during the project execution for topologically diverse construction project networks. The model is used to identify the effects of percentage completion, network topology as well as its compounding effects on the stability of EVM forecasting and topology–stability relations were developed for schedule performances. Finally, the performance indices are compared for the stability behaviour.