Change in energy structure and energy security under climate mitigation scenarios

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate how energy structure and energy security of the world and countries will change in the future under various climate change policies, and to better understand the relationship between climate and energy issues that could be used in the related policy discussions. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study is conducted by a simulation model. A reference scenario and three policy scenarios, based on the Representative Concentration Pathways, are analyzed until the end of this century using the AIM/CGE [Global] model. The scenarios are compared from primary and final energy structure and trade of fossil fuels. Findings: Fossil-fuel-centered energy structure shifts to rely more on renewables by introducing climate change policies. Furthermore, the percentage of the trade amount of fossil fuels is smaller in the policy scenarios than in the reference scenario. The findings reveal that energy security also improves by taking climate change measures. Originality/Value: The paper studies an energy security issue in a global framework. In addition, the analysis is based on a long-term perspective. The results of this research could be used for exploring the solutions for both energy and climate change issues simultaneously in a global basis. © Springer-Verlag London 2013.