Hydrological modelling of the Sierra de las Minas in Guatemala, by using a conceptual distributed model and considering the lack of data

Abstract

The Biosphere Reserve Sierra de las Minas is part of the Guatemalan System of Protected Areas and contains the largest cloud forests of Guatemala. Its southern slopes flow into the Motagua Valley, one of the more active zones in the country and paradoxically, the most arid and driest zone of Central America. We have studied the hydrology of the Teculutn Basin on a daily time step, by estimating its hydrological characteristics and using the conceptual distributed model Tetis v. 7.2 developed at the Polytechnic University of Valencia, Spain. We applied a new split-parameter structure coupled with the SCE-UA automatic optimization algorithm to obtain the set of optimal correction factors of the model. Among the results we have completed a precipitation spatial and sensitive analysis. The model has shown a high sensitivity to changes in the parameter, which characterizes the precipitation increment due to the difference in altitude. In an attempt to capture seasonal variability produced by the presence of the cloud forest in the upper portion of the basin, we studied the horizontal precipitation and the sensitivity to changing the correction factor for evaporation and the vegetation cover index.