Actuarial models in the design of human-oriented production systems and products

Abstract

The article describes an approach to determining the cost characteristics of human-oriented production systems and products (mainly machines) at the conceive stages. The cost characteristics are determined on the basis of an estimate of the probability of a trouble-free operation of the machine during operation. At the same time, actuarial models and the Bayes formula are used, and the cost of ensuring safety in the production system or in the product is assumed to equal to the insurance fund to overcome the consequences of accidents. It has been established that it is expedient to organize work on the design of human-oriented production systems and machines at the stages of conceive, as well as concept design and detailed design, based on the AGILE-ideology.