EARLI: A complex systems approach for modeling land-use change and settlement growth in early agricultural societies

Abstract

Understanding the driving forces of historical land-use change can provide insights about the pressures experienced in present-day landscapes. This study develops a model to examine the spatio-temporal land-use changes and population responses of early agricultural communities under a variety of environmental and cultural conditions. Complex systems theory and geographical information systems (GIS) are integrated into the design of the model. The resulting Early Agricultural Resources and Land-use Investigation (EARLI) model couples agent-based modeling (ABM) and cellular automata (CA) techniques within a GIS framework. The model examines how both cultural and environmental factors influence land use change under multiple scenarios. Results from the simulations provide new insights that range from analysis of the interaction of human behavior within the local environment to the archaeological record.