The value of system dynamics modeling in policy analytics and planning

Abstract

An efficacious policy and planning process must be focused on enhancing the ability of decision makers to make sense of an uncertain and complex environment. One tool that could prove useful in this process is system dynamics modeling, created by Jay Forrester at MIT. Use of small system dynamics models (with each module containing ten stocks or less) as a decision support tool has recently been explored in three areas of regional planning: modeling a regional economic and education strategy for Central Coast California; the modeling of U.S.-China relations; and, the modeling of violent extremist activity. In each case, an integrated system dynamics model was created or planned that included multiple modules that comprise a strategic system. The models allowed decision-makers to use a “flight control simulator” or “dashboard” to better understand potential, non-linear, behavioral outcomes over time. When used in concert with other methods and tools of evaluation, system dynamics may provide enhanced understanding and key insights into problems previously thought too complex for this level of analysis and may encourage decision makers to examine a longer time horizon in overcoming policy resistance and establishing system stability.