Ecological modeling

Abstract

Ecological and ecosystem models have emerged as powerful research, synthesis, and management tools over the last several decades. They serve as important tools for synthesizing current understanding and available data, understanding how estuaries function, testing our assumptions, and identifying gaps in our knowledge. They provide us a means of conducting whole-system experiments to identify how estuaries respond to change, and this predictive capability has made them essential tools for informing estuarine management. A wide variety of modeling approaches exist from conceptual to mathematical, individual to compartmental, and population to ecosystem. Models will continue to play a critical role in both research and management in estuarine systems and can be continually updated as our empirical understanding of ecosystem processes improves. In addition to their ongoing role in predicting estuarine response to changes in nutrient loading, fishing pressure, and restoration, models will become increasingly important in the coming years in predicting responses to climate change, individually and in combination with other stressors.