Ignorance, indifference, or incompetence: why are Russian covert actions so easily unmasked?

Abstract

Although plausible deniability is a definitional characteristic of covert actions, numerous Russian actions have been unveiled and attributed to Russia over the past decade. The reason for these frequent revelations can be explained by three factors: ignorance, indifference, and incompetence. Russian actions often display ignorance about the reactions they might elicit, indifference to global opinion if they are caught, and incompetence that allows foreign governments to unpeel the sometimes thin veneer of clandestinity that is supposed to cover Russian actions. Frequent revelations based on a combination of those factors have given Russia a reputation of aggressiveness in the international arena, while also limiting Russia’s own actions, even in overt areas such as diplomacy and economic relations, because of that reputation.