Projecting climate change potential of harvested wood products under different scenarios of wood production and utilization: Study of Slovakia

Abstract

The forestry and forest-based sector play a significant role in climate change mitigation strategies and can contribute to the achievement of a climate-neutral economy. In this context, the ability of harvested wood products (HWP) to sequester carbon is of significant importance. The objective of this work is to make a projection of climate change mitigation potential of HWP, under different scenarios of wood utilization in Slovakia. This study builds on the comparison of different scenarios of industrial wood utilization till 2035 and presents the resulting impacts on the national carbon balance. The results suggest that the development of timber supplies after 2020 in Slovakia will be influenced, in particular, by the future changes in the age distribution and tree species composition as well as the extent of future accidental felling. Consequently, a predicted structure and availability of wood resources in Slovakia will be reflected in a higher share of the production of products with shorter life cycle and thus will negatively affect the carbon pool in HWP. By comparing the results of the four designed scenarios, it follows that the scenario with the greatest mitigation potential, is the one assuming the optimal use of wood assortments and limitation of industrial roundwood foreign trade.