A tropical ocean recharge mechanism for climate variability. Part II: A unified theory for decadal and ENSO modes

Abstract

Decadal to interdecadal timescale variability in the Pacific region, commonly referred to as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), is studied in this research using analytical and numerical models. A coupled analytical model is formulated to analyze the physical mechanism of both the PDO and ENSO. It has the equatorial β-plane dynamics of a reduced-gravity model coupled with the wind stress of fixed spatial patterns. The amplitude of the latter is proportional to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The SST anomaly is governed by a simple thermal dynamic equation used for ENSO modeling. It is found that when a warm SST is coupled with cyclonic wind stress patterns in the eastern subtropical Pacific, an oscillation with a timescale of around 10-15 yr could be generated. In contrast, when a warm SST is coupled with only a westerly wind stress in the central equatorial Pacific, an ENSO-like oscillation could be generated with a timescale of around 3-5 yr. Thus the present research is potentially relevant to aspects of the PDO and the mechanism of the PDO may be understood as a weakly coupled decadal recharge oscillator similar to the recharge oscillator dynamics of ENSO. The sensitivity of these two kinds of coupled modes to different parameters is tested. Numerical integrations with the reduced-gravity shallow-water model in a rectangular basin and a similar coupled framework confirm the results of the analytical model.