Identifying Mafia Bosses from Meeting Attendance

Abstract

This paper analyzes two criminal networks belonging to the ‗Ndrangheta, a mafia-type criminal organization originating from Calabria, a Southern Italian Region. The literature on criminal networks argues that differences in the degree and betweenness centrality measures may highlight strategic positioning patterns for criminals capable of reducing risk of detection and maintaining control over the criminal activities at the same time. However, the identification of this strategic pattern is difficult whenever, as frequently happens, centrality measures are highly correlated The paper analyzes network positioning in two mafia-type organizations, where degree and betweenness centrality were highly correlated. The analysis focuses on specific characteristics of the individuals in the networks (task, hierarchy and social status within each group) and how these relate to network positioning (centrality scores and clustering coefficient) and the outcome of the criminal proceedings (accusation, arrest, conviction and sentence in months). Results show that task and hierarchy are highly associated with network centrality, but also with accusation, arrest and conviction. Contrarily, high social status within the networks shows limited association with network centrality and the outcome of criminal proceedings. This may reveal patterns of strategic positioning which could not be identified solely though network analysis measures.