Fiscal Policy in an Age of Secular Stagnation

Abstract

An on-going period of secular stagnation in advanced economies has brought down interest rates, growth rates and inflation. Due to the relatively larger fall in interest rates, the differential between the interest rate paid on government debt and the output growth rate (IRGD) became lower and has even turned negative in most advanced economies. In such an environment, public debt may come at much lower (or even no) cost. Thus, if this pattern remains stable, it has important implications on the role of fiscal policy. Against this background, this paper discusses relevant long-term trends in Europe and aims to explain the currently low IRGD. Furthermore, it investigates possible future IRGD paths and its consequences for fiscal policy.