The impact of taxation reduction on smoking in youth between 1990 and 1999: Results from a reconstructed cohort analysis of the Canadian Community Health Surveys

Abstract

Background: Increases in taxation can contribute to smoking control. In the early 1990's, tobacco smuggling rates in Canada increased dramatically. Governments responded with a substantial reduction in taxes on tobacco products. This study examines the impact of these tax changes on smoking in youth in Canada. Methods: Data on smoking from three consecutive cycles of the Canadian Community Health Surveys were combined and analyzed using a reconstructed cohort approach. Age, sex and calendar year specific rates of smoking experimentation and the onset of daily smoking were estimated for youth. Estimates apply to the entire Canadian population. Results: There was a strong increase in smoking in youth in the years following the reduction in tobacco taxes. The increase was stronger in women. The rates returned to pre-1990 rates by about 2002. The number of excess daily smokers for people born between 1977 and 1985 that can be linked to the taxation reduction is about 190,000. Interpretation: There is strong evidence that reduction of tobacco taxes to combat smuggling had an adverse impact on smoking rates in youth. © 2014 Nicholas J. Birkett.