World food markets into the 21st century: Environmental and resource constraints and policies

Abstract

Projections of global food supply and demand to the year 2020 indicate that food production in the aggregate is likely to keep pace with growing populations and incomes, and that real food prices will be stable or slowly declining. This article examines the possible environmental and resource constraints to long-term food production growth and explores the implications of these possible constraints for food and resource policies. The article reviews and synthesises the evidence on biophysical limits to crop productivity; plant genetic resources and biotechnology; the availability of plant nutrients; soil and land degradation; the increasing scarcity and declining quality of water; and the impact of global climate change on agriculture.