Four Approaches to the Reference Class Problem

Abstract

We present and analyse four approaches to the reference class problem. First, we present a new objective Bayesian solution to the reference class problem. Second, we review Pollock’s combinatorial approach to the reference class problem. Third, we discuss a machine learning approach that is based on considering reference classes of individuals that are similar to the individual of interest. Fourth, we show how evidence of mechanisms, when combined with the objective Bayesian approach, can help to solve the reference class problem. We argue that this last approach is the most promising, and we note some positive aspects of the similarity approach.