Ideological differentiation and strategic coordination in presidential elections in Latin America

Abstract

Objective/context: This article estimates the effect of ideological differentiation on the level of electoral coordination in presidential elections in Latin America. The fragmentation of party systems depends largely on the level of electoral coordination, which is affected, according to the literature, by electoral rules and social heterogeneity. The article argues that it is necessary to consider the impact of political factors, such as ideological differentiation, on electoral coordination. It is argued that ideological differentiation, as an attribute of programmatic competence, increases the ability of political elites and voters to coordinate their entry and voting decisions, respectively. Methodology: Through statistical models, it is shown that those systems that exhibit a greater ideological differentiation, measured as weighted polarization among the agents of the system, have higher levels of electoral coordination, resulting in a lower absolute and effective fragmentation, a greater concentration of the vote in the strongest candidates, and a lower level of wasted votes. Conclusions: Ideological differentiation between competing parties significantly affects electoral coordination, and this effect is stable and robust to institutional and socio-structural controls. Programmatically structured party systems, and therefore ideologically differentiated, exhibits higher levels of electoral coordination than those structured on non-programmatic appeals (clientelism, personalism). Originality: Fragmentation has been addressed primarily as the product of electoral systems and social heterogeneity, or a combination of both. However, this article shows that, since fragmentation depends on the ability of elites and voters to coordinate their entry and voting decisions, it is also affected by strictly political factors, such as the degree of existing ideological differentiation.