The Italian Pathway for Energy Transition: From the Coal Phase Out to the Problems Related to Natural Gas

Abstract

In Italy, the de-carbonization process descending from the National Energy Strategy (NES) of the November 2017 and the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of December 2019 has led two specific effects: the progressive ending of coal use as a fuel for the production of electricity and the emanation of authorization acts for the conversion to natural gas of existing coal-fired power plants and/or for the construction of new power plants powered by natural gas. These new plants will be technologically advanced and designed to guarantee the safety of the national electricity grid in periods of greatest energy demand and will have to support the growing part of energy produced with plants powered by renewable energy sources (especially wind and photovoltaic). This reference context will necessarily have to take into account the recent gas supply difficulties due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which could lead to a reconsideration of the projects for the construction of new gas plants by focusing on other energy sources. This paper hence aims to quantify and to evaluate the effective environmental benefits for atmospheric emissions, related to the replacement of coal with natural gas. Starting from the electrical powers replaced and installed, the potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will be examined, comparing the current emission situation in terms of CO2, with the future scenarios deriving from the construction of thermoelectric plants whose projects are currently under authorization.