On the importance of nonlinear modeling in computer performance prediction

Abstract

Computers are nonlinear dynamical systems that exhibit complex and sometimes even chaotic behavior. The low-level performance models used in the computer systems community, however, are linear. This paper is an exploration of that disconnect: when linear models are adequate for predicting computer performance and when they are not. Specifically, we build linear and nonlinear models of the processor load of an Intel i7-based computer as it executes a range of different programs. We then use those models to predict the processor loads forward in time and compare those forecasts to the true continuations of the time series. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.