GLOWA-Danube Scenarios

Abstract

This chapter gives an overview of the scenarios of the future used in GLOWA-Danube. Scenarios comprise quantitative and/or qualitative assumptions about possible future conditions and support the process of modelling. Based on expert group discussions and available knowledge, a GLOWA-Danube scenario describes one possible projection of the patterns of climate and social conditions into the future, thus using the best knowledge in order to limit the number of possible scenarios to those that are probable or relevant. A GLOWA-Danube scenario consists of two basic elements that are interconnected: a climate scenario (climate trend) which can take on various manifestations (climate variant) and a societal scenario, which can take place under various climatic conditions. Finally, another selection option relates to policy measures, which are targeted, point interventions (in space and/or time) to counteract or to support a trend in a selected scenario. The approach described in this section provides the basis for the definition of all scenarios of the future used within the GLOWA-Danube project.