Modelling and Forecasting Energy Demand: Principles and Difficulties

Abstract

We give a brief description of how energy demand can be modelled as a function of calendar data, meteorological data and economic variables. The principles of energy demand models are presented and a brief overview of commonly used mathematical methods is given. For each method advantages and disadvantages are described. Some examples illustrate difficulties that may be encountered when using meteorological data in energy models. These difficulties are discussed and we propose some steps weather services could take to facilitate the use of meteorological data in the energy sector.