Increasing the impact of dynamic microsimulation modelling

Abstract

This paper considers the degree of progress made by the field of dynamic microsimulation over the past five decades. It highlights the expanding breadth of the field, both in terms of the number of countries and in terms of the broadening policy area. It also outlines concerns in relation to lack of emphasis historically in relation to the transmission of codified and in the sometimes proprietary ownership model. Moving forward, an improved focus on the codification and peer review of methodologies used in the field is suggested. In terms of tacit knowledge transmission, the organisation of more regional meetings of the International Microsimulation Association is encouraged. In terms of future areas for model development, the opportunities are to incorporate behaviour to a greater extent, utilise more data in the big data revolution, to increase the field of microsimulation into new policy areas, and to share code and work in networks. Finally, the role of peer review is highlighted.