Quantifying the contribution of flood intensity indicators with the projection pursuit model

Abstract

Identifying the various factors that affect the intensity of a flood event, such as its duration and volume, is essential for strategic planning and flood management. Further, quantifying the impacts of these major factors on flood intensity using the contribution rate is essential, but technically challenging. In this study, the authors have adopted the projection pursuit model to quantify the contribution rates of peak flood stage and peak flood discharge, flood duration, and total flood volume (the maximum 12-, 24-, and 72-hour flood volumes) in the Wujiang River in Southern China. This study showed that peak flood discharge and total flood volume were the two dominant factors impacting flood intensity. Although flood duration can be a major factor for some flood events, it contributed the least to flood intensity for most of the historic flood events studied. Likewise, the maximum 24-hour and 72-hour flood volumes contributed little to flood intensity. Findings from this study not only demonstrated the successful adoption of the projection pursuit model for contribution rates, but also provided critical information for planning and managing the regional hydraulic resources in the Wujiang River.