Modelling the transport and deposition of ash following a magnitude 7 eruption: the distal Mazama tephra

Abstract

Volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDMs) are necessary for forecasting tephra dispersal during volcanic eruptions and are a useful tool for estimating the eruption source parameters (ESPs) of prehistoric eruptions. Here we use Ash3D, an Eulerian VATDM, to simulate the tephra deposition from the ~ 7.7 ka climactic eruption of Mount Mazama. We investigate how best to apply a VATDM using the ESPs characteristic of a large magnitude eruption (M ≥ 7). We simplify the approach to focus on the distal deposit as if it were formed by a single phase of Plinian activity. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to use modern wind profiles to simulate the tephra dispersal from a prehistoric eruption; however, this introduces an inherent uncertainty to the subsequent simulations where we explore different ESPs. We show, using the well-documented distal Mazama tephra, that lateral umbrella cloud spreading, rather than advection–diffusion alone, must be included in the VATDM to reproduce the width of the isopachs. In addition, the Ash3D particle size distribution must be modified to simulate the transport and deposition of distal fine-grained (< 125 µm) Mazama ash. With these modifications, the Ash3D simulations reproduce the thickness and grain size of the Mazama tephra deposit. Based on our simulations, however, we conclude that the exact relationship between mass eruption rate and the scale of umbrella cloud spreading remains unresolved. Furthermore, for ground-based grain size distributions to be input directly into Ash3D, further research is required into the atmospheric and particle processes that control the settling behaviour of fine volcanic ash.