Modular analysis of complex systems with numerically described multidimensional probability distributions

Abstract

To analyze complex systems, many teams have to collaborate, often from different disciplines. The presented approach allows a systematic modular description of such systems (esp. systems, that are influenced by uncertain values, e.g. from human behavior or from mechanical/material uncertainty). The model of the system is made up from a network of modules, which are connected by interfaces. Each interface is a set of values, each described by Numerically Described Multidimensional Probability Distributions (NDMPD). This allows a description even of scattered values. The behavior of each module can be described by formulas (the related computer tool will evaluate it for parameters given as NDMPD and provide the result as NDMPD)NDMPD, gathered by surveys,evaluations of the module as a subsystem,many other methods, e.g. Monte Carlo,appropriate assumptions. If a module is considered as a subsystem, it can be hierarchically modeled by sub-modules. The behavior of the subsystem can be described with NDMPD, which are derived from the behavior of its (sub-)modules. As the system behavior is described numerically, computers can evaluate it. This allows automatic reevaluation, e.g. after a change of a single module (after a refinement, for new findings, for other hypothesis etc.).