Short-term extreme heat at flowering amplifies the impacts of climate change on maize production

Abstract

Extreme weather poses a threat to global crop production, food security and farmer livelihoods. High temperatures have been identified as detrimental to crop yields; however, how heat stress during the critical flowering stage will influence future maize (Zea mays L.) yields remains unclear. Here, we combined statistical and process-based models to assess impacts of short-term extreme heat at flowering on Chinese maize yield under climate change. We showed that heat around flowering has a stronger impact on yields than heat at other times in the growing season, especially for temperatures >30 °C. Heat stress during flowering was responsible for 23% of total yield loss from extreme degree days (EDDs) in 1990-2012. An improved process-based model (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-maize) incorporating a grain-temperature function was then applied and indicated that extreme heat at flowering amplified the impacts of climate change on maize production compared to the original model. The improved APSIM-maize predicted an 8.7% yield reduction across the Chinese Maize Belt as EDDs increased more than quadrupled at the end of the century (2070-2099) under a high emissions pathway (SSP585) in comparison with the baseline period (1990-2019). Our study highlights the importance of extreme heat at flowering on maize yield and can inform farmers and policy makers on adaptive measures as well as providing a reference for other crop areas facing similar challenges.