When will Helicobacter pylori gastritis disappear in history in Finland?

Abstract

Objectives: To predict how the10-year birth cohort specific prevalence rates of chronic non-atrophic (CG) and atrophic gastritis (AG), related to Helicobacter pylori (Hp) infection, will decline during the 21st century among the native adult Finns. Materials and methods: The predictions are based as continuums of our earlier observations of gradual and significant declines in birth cohort specific prevalence rates of CG and AG in endoscopic biopsies from gastric antrum and corpus of 2298 adult dyspeptic outpatients or asymptomatic volunteers born 1890–1977 that were endoscopied in 1972–1997 in Finland. Results and discussion: We could predict that the Hp related CG and AG will gradually disappear in history among the native Finns during the 21st century. From the 2020s onward, the CG and AG would decrease with time in prevalence rate, cohort-by-cohort, and would be more and more highlighted in the middle aged or elderly age groups only. Finally, since all birth cohorts (generations) infected with Hp have passed away by 2080, the Hp related gastrites would not appear anymore in notable counts among the native Finns. Correspondingly, gastric cancers and peptic ulcers (both duodenal and gastric), which are etiopathogenetically linked with Hp gastrites, would similarly become gradually more and more infrequent and rare disorders among native Finns during the 21st century.