Using Bayesian inference to manage uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessments in urban environments

Abstract

A Bayesian risk assessment to assess the potential adverse health effects of the exposure of children up to 6 years of age to urban trace elements in municipal playgrounds in Madrid was carried out. Bayesian statistical methods were used to adapt the distributions of some of the exposure variables taken from the literature to the specific exposure conditions found in the playgrounds of Madrid, Spain. The exposure variables borrowed from the scientific literature were revised with the population-specific data acquired through two limited surveys of 75 and 56 parents, respectively. The predictive distributions of two exposure variables, i.e., body weight and exposure frequency, were subsequently used to better define the distribution of risk estimates.